On April 15th, foreign media observed that the policy effect of China's steady growth in foreign trade was gradually showing. The backlog of export orders due to postponed resumption of work was delivered one after another, which led to a sharp narrowing of the decline in the value of exports denominated in US dollars in March. The improvement in imports and exports in March showed that China's foreign trade resilience is still on, especially that ASEAN surpassed the EU to become China's largest trading partner, showing that China's export destination diversification is accelerating.
Demonstrate China's foreign trade resilience
According to a report by Reuters in Beijing on April 14, Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, said: "The resilience of imports and exports in March is still in place, but what is more worrying is the performance in the following months, which still needs to be observed." He It is believed that the greater impact may still be in the back, mainly in two aspects: first, the decline in external demand is steep, and orders have shrunk sharply; second, the tendency of trade protectionism has risen, the trend toward deglobalization and desinicization has intensified, and part of the supply chain has been heavily Structure. The first impact may be short-term and the impact is severe, and the second impact may be slower, but the impact is far-reaching.
China's General Administration of Customs announced on the 14th that the dollar-denominated exports in March fell by 6.6% year-on-year, and the median value of Reuters survey estimates fell by 14%; imports fell by 0.9% year-on-year, and the median value of Reuters estimates fell by 9.5%. The trade surplus for the month was $ 19.9 billion, and Reuters estimated the median surplus to be $ 19.1 billion. Both China's imports and exports in March were better than expected, and the trade balance also turned from a deficit in the previous two months to a surplus.
Export diversification is accelerating
The report pointed out that the diversification of China's export destinations is also in progress.
In renminbi terms, the total value of China `s imports and exports to ASEAN in the first quarter was 99.134 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and accounted for 15.1% of China `s total foreign trade. In the first quarter of this year, ASEAN has replaced the EU as China's largest trading partner.
Among them, China's import and export to Vietnam and Malaysia played a "leading" role, driving the overall growth of ASEAN's foreign trade by 5.6 percentage points. In the first quarter, the trade volume between China and Vietnam increased by 18%, and the trade volume with Malaysia increased by 7.6%.
May face more difficulties
Reuters believes that the overseas epidemic began to spread rapidly in March, and the global economic downside risks have increased, which has also increased the difficulties faced by China's foreign trade, and greater impact may be behind. Problems such as the reduction of new foreign trade orders have begun to emerge gradually, and the restructuring of supply chains and industrial chains due to the possible warming of global trade protectionism is more worthy of vigilance.
The British "Financial Times" website reported that Julian Evans-Prichard, senior economist of Kaitou International Macroeconomic Consulting Co., wrote in a report on the 14th: "The most difficult time for China's export industry has not yet Coming. Although the disturbance on the supply side of factory activities has been reduced, foreign demand will drop sharply this quarter due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on economic activities outside China. "
Both imports and exports in March were better than expected. Foreign media: China's steady growth in foreign trade policy effect appears
2020 04/15